Cuts to foreign aid budgets by the UK, France and Germany could contribute to more than 11.5 million preventable deaths by the end of the decade, according to a new report, which warns that Europe is abandoning its role as a pillar of global health and development.
Three separate studies within the report reveal the extent to which the nations have slashed their foreign aid budgets, and illustrate the impact worldwide. UK official development assistance (ODA) spending is projected to fall by 45% between 2020 and 2026, Germany’s by 37% between 2023 and 2026, and France’s by 30% over the same period, according to the research.
“Led by its three largest donors, the continent is moving toward a ‘new normal’ of significantly reduced international engagement – not as a temporary adjustment, but as a structural realignment,” said the report, produced by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal).
Researchers estimate that Britain’s cuts alone could result in 5.1 million additional deaths by 2030, while France’s reductions could lead to 3.5 million and Germany’s to almost 2.9 million.
Gonzalo Fanjul, an author of the study, said: “Much of the debate focuses on Trump and his administration, but our estimates suggest that Europe’s shifting spending priorities will prove equally devastating for some of the most vulnerable communities in the world, while undermining the very rules-based order and international solidarity the UK, France and Germany demand and claim to defend.
“The Ebola outbreak now declared a global health emergency is a stark reminder that a weakened global health system leaves everyone exposed,” he added.
“The priority now must be to reaffirm global health as a public good of a new era in international relations: with predictable and multi-sourced financing, genuine multilateral commitment, and the political intelligence to align stated values with actual budgets.”
Last month, UK spending on foreign aid hit its lowest level in nearly two decades. Of the three countries, the UK’s withdrawal of ODA would have the largest impact on mortality across the 128 low- and middle-income countries included in the study.
According to the report, UK cuts to sexual and reproductive health programmes could contribute to 1.1 million unintended pregnancies, 375,000 unsafe abortions and more than 1,000 maternal deaths.
“Aid cuts of this magnitude are not technical adjustments but political choices with lasting consequences,” the report on UK aid spending said.
The report estimated that France’s 30% drop in ODA between 2022 and 2026 could result in more than 447,000 preventable deaths each year. Also noted is a specific 60% cut to France’s Global Fund contribution, which could mean failing to prevent 710,000 deaths from Aids, tuberculosis, and malaria by 2028.
In Germany, aid as a share of gross national income has already dropped from 0.85% in 2022 to 0.67% in 2024 and is expected to fall to 0.52% in 2026, with further declines anticipated. The report said a near 50% cut to humanitarian aid is projected to leave about 4 million people worldwide without food assistance.
The findings come as European governments sharply increase defence spending in response to geopolitical tensions and wars, and after the Trump administration gutted USAid.
Last year, Britain announced aid cuts alongside plans to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP. This is now scheduled to rise to 3.5% by 2035 in line with Nato targets. Germany and France are also increasing military spending while reducing development budgets.
“Development cooperation has long functioned as a stabilising tool – strengthening health systems, reducing fragility and mitigating the drivers of conflict and displacement,” the report said. “Weakening it may ultimately prove more costly than sustaining it.”
In a statement in March defending the aid cuts, the UK foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, wrote: “Our commitment to international development is as important as ever – it reflects UK values, supporting those in conflict and extreme poverty, and is also in the UK national interest because in an interconnected world, crises and instability across the world undermine our security and prosperity at home.
“We are modernising and improving our approach to development to have the greatest impact abroad and secure the best value for money for taxpayers at home.”
