A Reform UK board member has admitted Andy Burnham “has made things very difficult” for the party in the crucial Makerfield by-election, as internal data suggests Nigel Farage’s party is heading for a comfortable defeat.
Gawain Towler, a long-time ally of Reform leader Mr Farage, told Times Radio that Mr Burnham “does change the weather”, adding that it will be a “very, very hard task” beating him in Thursday’s crucial vote.
His comments come as data, collated by Reform UK and seen by The Independent, appears to confirm that Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain is set to split the right-wing vote and make a big enough dent in Reform’s support to end their chances of claiming victory over Labour.
The data, collated by an experienced election campaigner who has spent significant time in the constituency since the by-election was announced, estimated that Mr Burnham is set to win by five points.
They estimate that Labour will get around 17,500 votes, while Reform will get around 16,000 and Mr Lowe’s Restore Britain around 2,000.
In percentages, this translates to 45.5 per cent for Burnham, 41 per cent for Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, with Restore Britain’s Rebecca Shepherd getting 5 per cent.
The data appears to confirm private polling for Labour, which The Independent revealed on Friday.
But the Reform insider said Mr Burnham could end up winning by an even bigger margin of about eight points. This is despite briefings by Reform to other publications suggesting the gap has closed to two points in a bid to talk up their chances and squeeze the Restore Britain vote.
The Reform insider told The Independent: “Burnham is definitely able to get 2024 Labour voters who didn’t vote in 2026.
“Burnham is also able to squeeze Green, Lib Dem and Conservative voters effectively in a way other Labour figures can’t.”
They added that Reform is vulnerable with female voters who voted for the party in 2026, which could be significant in a tight race. This comes after allegations of misogyny about Reform’s candidate Mr Kenyon, which Mr Farage has attempted to brush off as “pub talk”.
But significantly, the insider added: “Restore are definitely there although their vote is extremely soft; but Reform don’t have the sophistication of the operation to be able to squeeze them.”
They estimated that Mr Lowe’s party could win as much as 8 per cent on a good day. Reform, meanwhile, are hoping that the Green vote rises to 5 per cent or above in a way which would take votes off Mr Burnham.
However, a comfortable victory for Mr Burnham would be seen as a disaster in an area where Reform won all the council seats just a few weeks ago.
Another ally of Mr Farage said: “We need to win seats like Makerfield even with Burnham standing. This is exposing a lot of weaknesses in the operation.”
The two biggest problems appear to be “another disastrous candidate selection” with Mr Kenyon but also the inability of dealing with Restore on the right, which has the backing of X owner Elon Musk, the world’s first trillionaire.
One ally of Mr Farage said: “Basically Restore are becoming to Reform what Ukip used to be to the Tories – pulling away votes on the right with a more populist message. Nigel has lost his way and allowed Reform to be watered down by Tories, he needs to get back to being true to himself.”
