England take on Panama on Saturday looking to win their group and, in theory, earn an easier route to the World Cup final.
The result in Boston on Tuesday was not too damaging as Croatia’s win over Panama hours later means England can finish no lower than third in Group L, and four points will almost certainly be enough to be one of the best third-placed teams.
Only three times have England failed to progress past the group stage at a World Cup, the most recent example was 12 years ago in Brazil when they finished fourth behind Costa Rica, Uruguay and Italy.
Since then, England have finished fourth and suffered a quarter-final exit on football’s biggest stage.
To this date, the 1966 final remains England’s only World Cup final appearance, and Tuchel will hope his side can remain on track to earn a second gold star on their shirts come next month.
Fans watch a screening of England’s 0-0 draw with Ghana
PA Wire
Who will England play in World Cup last-32?
FIFA’s decision to prioritise the head-to-head record over goal difference means England are heavy favourites to win Group L. That will be confirmed as long as they beat Panama and at least match Ghana’s result against Croatia.
Due to Tuesday evening’s goalless draw, England can still be pipped to top spot by Ghana by goal difference, so a big margin of victory over Panama is required just to be on the safe side.
If England do win Group L, they will face one of the best third-placed teams from Group E/H/I/J/K.
At one stage this week, Portugal were down as England’s opponents – evoking memories from the infamous quarter-final showdown 20 years ago in Gelsenkirchen.
Rematch: England could face Portugal in the World Cup last 32
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As things stand, England are most likely to face DR Congo, with Senegal also a likely opponent.
Ecuador is a more unlikely opponent – though there could be a meeting with England in the last-16 stage.
Other very unlikely opponents include Algeria, Austria, Uzbekistan, Iraq and, yes, Portugal.
Should Tuchel’s side drop a place and finish as runners-up in Group L, their reward will be a last-32 showdown against the runners-up from Group K, which is currently predicted to be Colombia. But, yes, again, Portugal are firmly an option in this scenario.
In the unlikely scenario that England qualify as one of the best third-placed teams, they will face the winners of Group K, which will also be Colombia or Portugal.
