Labour has overtaken Reform UK in the polls for the first time in more than a year, buoyed by the momentum from Andy Burnham’s first week as prime minister.
According to a survey by pollsters More in Common, Labour is now leading with 28 per cent, up four points, while Nigel Farage’s Reform are down two points on 24 per cent.
It is the first time since March 2025 that Labour has led the way, with Reform in second place and the Tories just behind in third on 22 per cent.
Labour appears to have benefited from the “Burnham bounce”, as well as a fall in support for the Greens, who had been winning voters from Labour’s left flank but have gone down three points in a week to a mere 8 per cent.
Luke Tryl, the UK director at More in Common, said: “It’s only been a week since he entered office, but it’s clear that momentum is on the prime minister’s side. After a jam-packed week of high-profile policy announcements and media appearances, the Labour Party has surged in our weekly poll.
“With all the caveats that it’s just one poll, Labour now leads for the first time since March of last year, and holds their highest vote share since the early months of this government in 2024. And with both Reform and the Green Party dropping to their lowest vote share in months, it seems that this early focus on the cost of living has appealed to voters Labour has lost on both the left and right.”
The findings come a week after Mr Burnham officially took over as prime minister from Sir Keir Starmer, who was forced out after Labour MPs lost confidence in his ability to beat Mr Farage.
Even more significantly, the poll suggests that if there were a general election, Labour would win with 325 seats, down 86, giving them a very narrow working majority.
The Tories would come second with 124 seats while Reform would be in third place with 88.
In an interview with the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg, Mr Burnham has moved to rule out a suggestion of an early election.
He said: “There is no early general election, and the thing I would say to you is 20 plus – how many million people you just mentioned voted for a manifesto, we’re in a parliamentary democracy so that is what people voted for.”
While Mr Burnham has been criticised for avoiding press conferences and scrutiny, his attempts to love-bomb voters with social media clips appear to have had early returns.
Meanwhile, Mr Farage has found himself in crisis over questions about an undeclared £5m donation from the crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne and his associations with convicted money launderer George Cottrell.
The Reform UK leader has also become a figure of fun after forcing a by-election in his own constituency with the main parties boycotting it, while he is up against 33 minor candidates, with the main challenger being the comedic candidate Count Binface.
