Notting Hill Carnival will take place over the upcoming bank holiday weekend which runs from Saturday, August 29 to Monday, August 31
15:39, 21 Aug 2026Updated 15:40, 21 Aug 2026
BBC Weather experts have dampened the dreams of partygoers with a complete washout forecast during Notting Hill Carnival’s Bank Holiday weekend. The huge event has been running since 1966 and each year around two million people attend the West London carnival.
But it may not be the warm paradise we are all hoping for with the latest long range London forecast predicting rain for most of Sunday (August 30) when the family and children’s day, J’Ouvert, and children’s parade all take place. The forecast is looking even worse on Bank Holiday Monday (August 31) when the adults’ day parade is held because currently it is set to rain overnight and then regular showers from 2pm onwards through to 9pm.
Thunder is also forecast from 7pm on the Bank Holiday Monday. It’s worth noting that the BBC, like other meteorologists, operates on a probability scale. In other words, this is by no means an absolute, iron-clad guarantee of rain – they’re just letting you know there’s a decent chance so you can plan your day accordingly.
WX Charts also forecasts very wet weather, especially at 12pm on Sunday, August 30. The heaviness of the rainfall is represented by shading, meaning about 0.1mm of rain will fall on the capital at that time.
MyLondon also spoke to Jim Dale of the British Weather Services, for his prediction of the weather and the reasoning behind it. Unfortunately he too doesn’t hold high hopes for a dry Notting Hill Carnival.
He did offer a silver lining and predicted it will be up to 24C, so ‘not hot, but pleasant’. But he said equally ‘the likelihood is showers,’ leaving us having to ‘look over our shoulders’ for rain.
The weather expert puts this down to ‘an area of low pressure coming in from the west.’ Low pressure happens because the air weighs less on the ground, and is pushed upward where it cools and condenses into clouds.
The Met Office’s long-range forecast is equally damning. It reads: “Becoming more unsettled and changeable from the south at the start of this period, as showers or longer spells of rain spread north across many parts of the UK. Some heavy bursts and thunderstorms are likely at times.”
Latest long range weather forecast for London into September
- Today (Friday, August 21) – High of 21C, sunny intervals and a gentle breeze
- Saturday, August 22 – High of 22C, sunny intervals and a gentle breeze.
- Sunday, August 23 – High of 24C, sunny and light winds.
- Monday, August 24 – High of 23C, sunny intervals and a moderate breeze.
- Tuesday, August 25 – High of 25C, sunny intervals and a gentle breeze.
- Wednesday, August 26 – High of 26C, drizzle and a gentle breeze.
- Thursday, August 27 – High of 23C, light rain showers and a gentle breeze.
- Friday, August 28 – High of 21C, thundery showers and a moderate breeze.
- Saturday, August 29 – High of 22C, light rain showers and a gentle breeze.
- Sunday, August 30 – High of 22C, thundery showers and a gentle breeze.
- Bank Holiday Monday, August 31 – High of 22C, thundery showers and a gentle breeze.
- Tuesday, September 1 – High of 22C, drizzle and a gentle breeze.
- Wednesday, September 2 – High of 23C, light rain and a gentle breeze.
- Thursday, September 3 – High of 22C, light rain and a gentle breeze.
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