The UK will co-host an international summit of more than 40 nations this week to discuss how to safeguard shipping through the strait of Hormuz when the Iran conflict finally comes to an end.
Keir Starmer has said the continuing closure of the waterway is “deeply damaging” and that getting global shipping moving is crucial to ease cost of living pressures.
Iran is believed to have laid at least a dozen mines to prevent oil tankers and other vessels from passing through the strait, through which about 20% of global oil flows.
But Tehran has thousands of naval mines in its arsenal, and while the US bombing campaign may have destroyed much of Iran’s naval capacity, mines can be dropped from relatively small boats.
With a depleted Royal Navy, the UK is likely to play a more limited role in keeping the strait safe and open for commercial shipping once hostilities do cease.
What role will UK ships play in clearing mines?
They will help with the wider effort, but the days of Royal Navy mine-hunting ships being a significant presence in the Gulf are over. The UK’s last vessel in Bahrain, HMS Middleton, was brought home from the Gulf days before US and Israeli strikes on Iran began.
The UK has seven mine-hunting vessels in its fleet, but four are unavailable for immediate operations. The remaining three are deemed crucial to protect UK waters from Russian threats and to ensure the safe passage of the “continuous at-sea deterrence” of the nuclear submarine fleet from Faslane, in the west of Scotland.
What about unmanned drones?
The Royal Navy response is instead expected to be largely autonomous and remote mine-hunter drones, which trick mines into detonating safely by flying in a pattern that makes them look like passing ships, operated by the Navy’s mine and threat exploitation group.
The UK currently has four drone systems in operation or development, code-named Wilton, Sweep, SeaCat and MMCM. It is not known how many of the drones are in service and which systems could be deployed, though the MoD has said drones are already in the region.
Military officials are understood to be considering sending a vessel that would act as a mother ship for mine-clearing drones – widely regarded as the future by western navies – to make the strait safer.
Downing Street said on Monday that RFA Lyme Bay, which is already in the Mediterranean, is being equipped with drones. Other vessels are likely to follow, with the prospect of sending crewed ships to the strait looking remote.
What about accompanying ships through the strait?
Convoys of commercial ships, protected by military vessels, are highly unlikely to be the solution to restoring shipping through the strait. As the shipping experts Lloyd’s List have warned, there would be a huge issue with capacity.
To protect tankers from threats from the skies, waterborne drones, fast boats and missiles, there would realistically have to be eight to 10 destroyers convoying groups of five to 10 ships at a time, they said.
The pre-conflict average was between 120 and 140 ships through the strait each day. A convoy system would also require one-way traffic, meaning the best-case scenario would be about 10% of normal flows. Although the option was looked at by France and the UK in the early days of the conflict, it was quickly written off as a solution.
What’s the answer to guaranteeing safe navigation?
All options will be under discussion at the Hormuz summit convened by the UK and France this week, with everybody looking for a solution for when the conflict is over.
Shipping experts believe that international oversight of commercial shipping will be needed but that the US would be the wrong military to provide it given the risk that American destroyers could end up being targets themselves.
International allies – potentially including the UK – could provide aerial oversight of the shipping lanes, once mines are cleared, but how this would be divided up between nations is unclear.
The shipping industry itself would like to see the strait go back to the traffic separation scheme that has been in place between Iran and Oman since 1968 – and has been riled by US threats to impose a tolling system.
What else could the UK military do in the region?
The defence secretary, John Healey, has already strengthened the military presence in the Gulf, with approximately 1,000 personnel deployed to support regional air defences, defend allies against threats, and monitor regional security.
After an Iranian-made missile was launched from Lebanon towards RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, the UK sent the warship HMS Dragon to the eastern Mediterranean – although the government was criticised for the length of time it took to get there.
RAF Typhoons and F-35 jets, alongside Wildcat helicopters, have continued their defensive missions over the weekend, while additional air defences have been sent to the Gulf to help protect allies.
