Election expert Professor Tony Travers says the result will be ‘absolutely knife-edge marginal’
An election expert has said that all eyes will be on Westminster City Council – where results balance on “a knife-edge” – at the upcoming local elections. The Central London council turned red at the 2022 local elections, for the first time since the foundation of the modern city in 1964.
Tony Travers CBE is a Professor in Practice at London School of Economics whose key research lies in both local and national elections. He told the Local Democracy Reporting Scheme that Westminster will be one of the principal London boroughs to watch at the upcoming local elections.
“Everybody will be watching it, it’s fascinating just how inescapable the politics in Westminster are across the country,” he told the LDRS.
Plenty of high-profile political issues in the area will likely be on the minds of locals as they prepare to vote at the elections on May 7, including the controversial pedestrianisation of Oxford Street.
But unlike many other parts of the country, Westminster is largely going to be a “two party” race – between the Conservatives and Labour – at the local elections, Professor Travers says.
“[Westminster] looks like politics in the 1950s, whereas the rest of the country is going to be voting Reform and Green and Lib Dem,” he said, adding: “it’s absolutely knife-edge marginal.”
Professor Travers believes that the Conservatives do “have the slight advantage” over Labour on May 7. He said the Tories would be “disappointed” if Westminster doesn’t turn back blue, given “how unpopular” the Labour Party is across the nation.
“If the Conservatives win, however badly they do elsewhere, Kemi Badenoch will definitely be rushing to Westminster City Hall the morning after,” he said, adding: “If Labour hold on it will be a Houdini-like escape for them.”
Professor Travers says that the real question is whether Reform, who have a full slate of candidates in Westminster, take more from Labour or the Conservatives. He predicts that the Green Party, who are also standing the maximum candidates, could win one or two seats from Labour on May 7.
Westminster City Council past election results
At the 2022 Local Elections, the Labour Party took control of the council with a 31 seat majority. Meanwhile, the Conservatives won 23 of the seats on the council.
Since then, there have been several defections and by-election results in the borough. Former Tory Councillor Tim Barnes was re-elected to the council at the West End by-elections in September 2024.
The Conservatives also won the Vincent Square ward by-elections in February 2025. In July 2024, the Abbey Road by-election also went to the Tory candidate. However, the Labour Party held their Harrow Road ward seat at a by-election also held in September 2024.
In June 2025, Conservative councillor Laila Cunningham, representing Lancaster Gate, quit the party to join Reform UK. She will not be re-standing at the up-coming elections as she is preparing to run as Reform’s London mayor candidate.
Former Labour councillor Paul Fisher, who represents the West End, defected to the Tories in April 2025. Former Tory Councillor Dr Alan Mendoza also defected to Reform in November of the same year.
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