The parties most likely to win the Senedd election next month offer radically different futures for Wales, but all six are facing criticism for not being “upfront” in their manifestos about the fiscal challenges the next Welsh government will face.
Labour, Plaid Cymru, Reform UK, the Green party, the Conservative party, and the Liberal Democrats are standing for the Senedd, which is expanding from 60 to 96 seats under a more proportional voting system.
Polls suggest Plaid Cymru or Reform will be the biggest party, with Welsh Labour, which has led the country for nearly 30 years, in a distant third. Coalition mathematics means Plaid is the only party likely to be able to form a government, possibly in coalition with the Greens or Labour.
This week, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) thinktank said that its analysis of the party manifestos showed “virtually no detail” on spending commitments; big public investment plans are beyond Wales’s current budgets, and will require expensive upfront private funding, or increased borrowing powers.
David Phillips, head of devolved and local government finance at the IFS, said: “The combination of a slowdown in increases in UK government funding, and growing demands and costs for health and social care, will mean a Welsh budget under significant pressure.
“Voters are already unhappy after years of only slow economic growth, a rising cost of living, and public services that have failed to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic … but the next Welsh government will have to face up to it.
“As the current UK government has found out, not preparing the public for difficult choices prior to an election can come back to bite you politically when the electoral dust has settled.”
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1. NHS
Opinion polls show that the NHS is overwhelmingly Welsh voters’ top concern; funding it already takes up almost half the Welsh government’s £27.5bn budget.
The Welsh NHS has fallen behind the other UK nations in several key metrics despite significant funding increases. Waiting lists are still far higher than the goal set out by the Welsh health minister, Jeremy Miles; A&E waiting times have worsened; and average hospital stays are 40% longer than in England. The Betsi Cadwaladr health board, which serves north Wales, has been in special measures since 2015.
Labour has promised £4bn for new hospitals, and pledged it will be possible for patients to see a member of a primary care team within 48 hours. Plaid Cymru has said that a member of a primary care team will be available within 24 hours, and offered 100 new GPs and 10 new “surgical hubs”.
Reform has offered less detail, but says it will cut waiting lists and eliminate routine corridor care. It has also promised that the NHS will remain free at the point of use.
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2. Education
Education is another voter priority: school absences remain 50% higher than before the pandemic, and in 2024, Welsh children’s reading, maths and science skills fell to the lowest recorded OECD assessment levels.
Welsh Labour has not offered any radical announcements on schools, as recent curriculum reforms have not yet fully embedded, while Plaid Cymru has proposed a “new national mission on literacy and numeracy” and policies aimed at teacher retention.
Reform, again, has offered less detail, but plans include introducing academy schools, as in England, and ending the Welsh exam board’s “de facto monopoly on qualifications”.
Welsh children lag behind in reading, maths and science. Photograph: Kate McShane/Getty Images -
3. Tax
On tax, Labour has promised not to raise income tax rates, while Reform and the Conservatives have promised a 1p cut. The Liberal Democrats have proposed a 1p increase to fund social care.
Plaid Cymru says it will push Westminster to further devolve tax powers so the Welsh government can set income tax bands as well as rates, to make income tax “more progressive”.
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4. Childcare
Childcare is another important policy area. A flagship Plaid Cymru pledge is 20 hours of childcare a week for all children aged nine months to four years, while Welsh Labour plans to expand its existing Flying Start childcare programme in deprived areas. It has pledged to provide families with children from the age of two with 12.5 hours of childcare a week.
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5. Best of the rest
Other flagship policies include Labour’s announcement of 100,000 new homes over the next decade, and pledges from Reform UK and the Conservatives to end Wales’s divisive 20mph speed limit in urban areas.
The Green party of England and Wales, which could become a junior party in a Plaid Cymru-led government, has offered a manifesto that the IFS called an “opening gambit for potential negotiations with other parties”. If the Greens enter a coalition with the Welsh nationalist party, the party is expected to push its partner for bolder energy policy and housing reform.
Plaid Cymru has ruled out a Welsh independence referendum in the next Senedd term. The Liberal Democrats have positioned themselves as the pro-unionist party: stopping independence is second only to the NHS on their priorities list.
