Polls have now closed across Scotland, Wales, and parts of England following local elections that could mark a significant moment for Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership.
Labour is widely expected to endure substantial losses nationwide, grappling with challenges from Reform UK on the right and an increasingly prominent Green Party on the left.
Polling expert Lord Robert Hayward has suggested Labour could see a reduction of approximately 1,850 councillors in England.
In Wales, the party is projected to lose the national vote for the first time in over a century, while in Scotland, the Scottish National Party (SNP) is anticipated to retain its position as the largest party.
As voting concluded, Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy commented that the elections had been “tough”.
He said: “I don’t want to sugarcoat it, the message from the doorstep is this is a tough election cycle.
“This is a mid-term set of elections with people concerned about the cost of living and wanting to see the Government go faster with quicker pace.”
Mr Lammy added that while Labour had run a “positive campaign”, the party’s “message of delivery” had been “drowned out by the politics of grievance”.
A national drubbing is also likely to reignite speculation about Sir Keir’s leadership of the party and the country.
Before polls closed, The Times reported that Energy Secretary and former Labour leader Ed Miliband has privately urged the Prime Minister to set out a timetable for his departure after the elections.
Other Cabinet ministers are said to be considering leadership tilts, including Health Secretary Wes Streeting and former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner.
Allies of Ms Rayner are confident she would be able to gain the support of the 81 MPs required to launch a challenge – a number which Mr Streeting is also said to have met, though neither are said to want to be the first to move.
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who is said to have a plan to return to Westminster within weeks, has dropped out of giving a speech on Friday morning.
Mr Burnham had been expected to address the second annual Festival of Childhood in Manchester on the morning after the elections, but on Thursday evening organisers said he had been replaced by Caroline Simpson, group chief executive of the Greater Manchester Combined Authority.
But Mr Lammy insisted Sir Keir would remain in office, pointing to poor local election results seen by other prime ministers who went on to win re-election.
He said: “I remember, after our huge victory in 1997, a very bad set of election results for Tony Blair in 1999.
“David Cameron lost successive local elections when he was in office, but went on to win the 2015 election.
“So it’s not unusual to be given a message by the electorate at mid-term elections.”
Meanwhile, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is set to make significant gains, building on last year’s local elections that saw the party pick up almost 700 councillors and take control of 10 authorities.
The Greens are also expected to do well, with new leader Zack Polanski predicting “record-breaking local elections” for the party, while Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats are eyeing an eighth successive year of local gains.
Predicting gains in London, Newcastle, Sussex and Wales, Mr Polanski said: “The news from the doorstep is that we will be taking seats from not just Labour but the Tories and Lib Dems too, from all across the country.”
Sir Ed said his party had knocked on three million doors during the campaign, twice its total last year, adding: “In former Conservative heartlands and old Labour strongholds alike, we are standing up for decency and real change.”
But it could be another bad night for the Conservatives despite an improvement in party leader Kemi Badenoch’s approval rating, with the party expected to lose further ground to Reform.
