Higher-earning immigrants are less likely to remain in the UK long-term and could be further deterred from staying by the government’s planned crackdown on settlement rights, analysis has revealed.
A report from the Migration Advisory Committee’s , Who Stays, Who Leaves?, follows about 900,000 journeys between 2014 and 2024.
The research is intended to help understanding of long-term migration patterns and the possible effects of policy changes on labour shortages, population forecasts and the public finances.
The MAC report said: “Our analysis suggests migrants earning the lowest wages are the most likely to remain in the UK long term, while there is some evidence that those with the highest salaries (£125,000+) are the most likely income group to leave.
“These [higher-paid] migrants may benefit from more global opportunities and lower financial barriers to moving elsewhere, reducing the incentives to remain in the UK longer-term.”
Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, proposes raising the baseline qualifying period for settled status in the UK from five years to 10.
The proposals say those who meet certain criteria, including higher-rate taxpayers, could qualify for discounts that would reduce the wait for indefinite leave to remain back down to five years.
However, MAC’s report warns that stricter rules could discourage higher earners from remaining in Britain.
It said: “Evidence on the role of settlement policy in shaping the countries’ attractiveness to prospective migrants is limited, however we may speculate that groups with lower stay rates under the current policy – such as higher earners and people working in higher education – could be more susceptible to being deterred by a less generous settlement offer (or may be more likely to leave if they are already in the UK and are moved to a longer path to settlement).”
The report did not provide the percentage of higher-earning migrants who left the UK over the period.
The analysis found the UK is retaining younger migrants. Those aged under 45 had an 81% five-year stay rate, compared with 65% for those aged 45 or over, who were more likely to have established overseas ties and “fewer opportunities for job mobility”.
Meanwhile, immigrants earning under £40,000 and health and social care workers demonstrated a “high commitment to remain”, with 94% of nurses staying after five years.
The lowest stay rates were among “natural and social science professionals” – predominantly academics – only 57% of whom remained after five years. These people were probably driven by “short-term contracts and internationally mobile career paths”, the report noted.
People from African and south Asian countries had the highest stay rates, and people from North America, Oceania, and east Asia had the lowest. London was the region most likely to retain migrants, while Scotland and Wales recorded the lowest stay rates.
Although standalone figures were not provided, women were about five percentage points more likely to remain after five years than men, in part reflecting that women are more likely to work in health and social care.
Beyond individual tax contributions made by lower-paid immigrants, the report said there were “broad societal impacts”, such as the “wider fiscal impacts of a well-functioning care sector” to consider.
It added: “The fact that younger workers are more likely to stay than older workers pushes the fiscal contribution upwards, since younger workers have more of their working, tax-paying lives ahead of them.”
