Andy Burnham is something of a political chameleon. In his long career he has served in a variety of roles, adopted a variety of political positions, and continues to attract a variety of opinions.
Among his friends and allies is Sacha Lord, the entrepreneur and chair of the Night Time Industries Association, who sums up why so many in the Labour movement see him as their political saviour.
He told The Independent: “This is probably the first time we could ever have a prime minister that you can have a normal conversation with, because you know, all the rest have just seemed so unapproachable and so aloof, whereas Andy, over the years of knowing him, he will stop and talk to absolutely anybody.”
For those who think these descriptions somehow ring a bell from recent experience, they would not be wrong. It is exactly what people once said about Boris Johnson, before his infamous downfall.
Anyone who joined Mr Johnson on the Vote Leave bus and saw him mobbed by people who wanted selfies with him in each town it rolled into, the sight of the high-fiving Burnham in Makerfield has a very familiar ring.
After all it was a terrific story: High-profile Westminster politician departs parliament to become mayor of one of Britain’s great cities; achieves cult status; rides back to parliament on a wave of popularity – both in the Commons and among voters – to return to government and eventually take over from a deeply unpopular leader and become prime minister.
For Mr Johnson, the London mayor who supplanted Theresa May, now read Mr Burnham, the ‘King in the North’ who may, if he gets his wish, replace Sir Keir Starmer.
The similarities go well beyond that though.
Great political instincts
Like Mr Johnson, Mr Burnham has fantastic political instincts, high emotional intelligence, enormous likeability and charisma, but is incredibly chaotic behind the scenes and very difficult to pin down in terms of what he believes in.
A former senior Labour adviser who worked alongside Mr Burnham in Manchester described his approach.
“His political instincts are incredible, you can’t teach that sort of thing. For example, he came in as mayor promising to end homelessness and rough sleeping and quickly realised it was impossible. But he pivoted quickly, worked with charities, set up all sorts of schemes and projects and was able to sell it as a success.
“He moved on to buses, brought them back into public ownership. He is very good at attaching himself to every success story and never misses an opportunity to speak up for Manchester.”
In London we got “Boris bikes”, in Manchester, it is now “Burnham buses”.
Does Burnham believe in anything?
However, with the policy instincts and personality politics comes an enigma. What does Andy Burnham actually stand for? It was a question often asked about Mr Johnson.
The former London mayor infamously wrote a pro-Leave and pro-Remain articles to decide which side to back in the EU referendum. He went for Leave in what appeared to be a naked attempt to get the right to support him in a leadership bid.
He became PM on a pro-Brexit ticket after vowing to “take back control” of Britain’s borders, yet immigration soared under his premiership in the so-called “Boris-wave”. He also refused to tackle the culture wars agenda the Tory right wanted. He even championed net zero much to their frustration.
Meanwhile, Mr Burnham is ratcheting up U-turns, whether it is rejoining the EU, a policy he is suddenly not so keen on as he fights for election in the very pro-Leave constituency of Makerfield. He has also backed down on rewriting Rachel Reeves’ economic policy and is not as passionate about electoral reform as he previously has been.
It is career defining. The running joke about him touches on the way he changes political position so effortlessly: A Blairite, a Brownite, a Milibandite, a Starmerite, an insider and an outsider walk into a bar. The barman asks: ‘What are you having, Andy?!’
Early on in the by-election campaign, a source close to the prime minister pointed out that Mr Burnham’s hopes of pleasing factions from the Socialist Campaign Group and Mainstream on the far left to Blue Labour on the right was unsustainable.
“Andy cannot just hold it together through personality alone. He is going to have to make decisions on positions and compromises. That’s going to annoy different supporters,” they said.
And when he disappointed his ardent supporters on the left by promising not to veer away from Shabana Mahmood’s hardline immigration policy, there was a dose of realism from one leftwing ally explaining why he was better than keeping Sir Keir or turning to Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner.
“It was a choice between castration or having your left hand lopped off. None of them were pain free,” the MP matter-of-factly stated.
But Mr Lord does believe the Manchester mayor has proven to be a man of principle.
“His policy is people focused,” he says pointing to how the bus policy had been shaped to help the bar staff working until the early hours in Manchester’s nightlife to get home without losing half their pay.
“I remember how he was influenced by a young woman in worked in a bar talking about having to get taxis home, that helped shape the night buses and £2 bus fare cap.”
A chaotic approach to politics
But others worry about Mr Burnham’s chaotic approach and lack of a team – again, traits a former senior party aide associated with Mr Johnson.
They said: “The problem is that he is so disorganised. It does remind you of Boris. There is not an event that he turns up on time to, he is always late.”
Mr Lord offers a reason: “He is well known for always being 25 minutes late, but that’s because he spends time talking to everyone at the previous events. As I said, he is very people focussed.”
Mr Lord described how the mayor would delay leaving so he could help staff put tables and chairs back after an event “instead of just thinking he is too important” – the kind of quality his supporters believe is a key difference between him and Mr Johnson.
But the lack of a large team behind him as he prepares to get into Downing Street is a bigger concern.
The same issue hit Mr Johnson, who was forced to recruit Michael Gove’s people, mainly Dominic Cummings as his chief of staff. It ended in disaster.
The ex-Labour aide noted: “The real problem is that Andy actually has a very small team. It is basically Kevin Lee, his chief of staff who has known him since university and the rest is Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA). You have to wonder who he will recruit when he comes into Downing Street.
“Given that he will not have the support of a majority of MPs and not much time, it might be hard to get good people.”
The real issue though is what has changed? Mr Johnson was not prime ministerial until he found popularity in London as mayor and now the same seems to apply in Manchester for Mr Burnham.
A politician reborn
Mr Burnham has come a long way since he was last an MP, when he lost his second leadership election bid in a contest that was his to lose. He had appeared timid and unambitious throughout, eventually beaten by Jeremy Corbyn, and left for Manchester much diminished.
Now he is Labour’s most popular figure in the polls, the one man who could beat Nigel Farage.
“I think Andy would be the first to admit that he has changed and learnt since he became mayor,” said Mr Lord.
“Being mayor of Manchester has been a real opportunity for him and a learning experience. We have seen it in the hospitality sector. He gets our needs as a major part of the economy in a way others don’t.
“In my view he is ready to be prime minister. The country needs him.”
