The latest Star Wars movie is a successful failure

The Mandalorian and Grogu is the first Star Wars movie to come out since The Rise of Skywalker hit theaters in 2019. In the meantime, the Star Wars franchise has been at a bit of a loss as to what to do with itself, churning out beloved TV series like Andor as well as limited series like The Book of Boba Fett, which most fans will agree is better left forgotten. The Mandalorian and Grogu has to feel big enough to satisfy longtime fans of the movies, targeted enough not to alienate those who are expecting a continuing of the Mandalorian TV show, and good enough to get a franchise that’s lost its way back on track.

Does it rise to the challenge? Kind of, sometimes, a bit. The Mandalorian and Grogu may be a decent investment for Disney in the end, but it isn’t likely to be counted among the franchise’s greats. Hopefully it will mark the beginning of better times ahead.

The movie itself

The Mandalorian and Grogu is not bad, which isn’t always good

The Mandalorian and Grogu picks up after the end of The Mandalorian TV series, which wrapped up its third and final season on Disney+ in 2023. That season spent a lot of time dealing with the history of the planet Mandalore and familiarizing us with characters like Mandalorian princess Bo-Katan Kryze (Katee Sackhoff). The lore got a bit bloated and heavy, especially for a series that began as a fleet-footed buddy comedy about Mandalorian bounty hunter Din Djarin (Pedro Pascal) and his adorable little protégé Grogu, aka Baby Yoda.

For better and worse, the new movie gets back to the spirit of the first season; it’s a standalone adventure you don’t need to do any homework to understand. The Mandalorian and Grogu are on a mission to track down an elusive warlord, but first they’ll need to grapple with Rotta the Hutt, the glory-hungry son of Jabba (voiced by The Bear star Jeremy Allen White). The plot is pretty thin, but provides plenty of opportunities for action scenes. There’s a big action scene in a gladiatorial arena, there’s an underwater bout, there’s a fight against droid security forces…the movie wants to keep you entertained.

And it’s nice that it has that instinct, but the film’s ambitions are rather small, to the point where it feels a little like a two-part episode of the TV show stretched out to over two hours. It was a good decision to jettison much of the dreary lore, but without it, The Mandalorian and Grogu doesn’t have much substance. The TV show painted the movie into a corner it can’t quite get out of.

The end result is a movie that is aggressively fine; critics are lukewarm on it and audiences like it well enough. That’s not going to set the world on fire, but if Disney plays its cards right, it won’t have to.

Disney knew this movie wasn’t going to be a blockbuster smash

And they prepared accordingly

Star Wars movies tend to be very expensive. The Force Awakens cost a ridiculous $533 million to produce while The Rise of Skywalker cost $275 million. Both of those movies made over a billion dollars, so the high costs were worth it. But there are also entries like 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, which only made $393 million on a budget of $330 million. A rule of thumb is that a movie has to make two to 2.5 times its budget to break even, and Solo did not come close.

There was a time when Disney likely thought anything with the name Star Wars on it was guaranteed to make upwards of a billion dollars at the box office. Movies like Solo disabused them of that notion. Several years of good-but-not-great TV shows like Ahsoka and Skeleton Key depressed interest in the franchise as a whole, so it’s unlikely they went into The Mandalorian and Grogu expecting chart-topping numbers.

And they would have been right. By the end of its second weekend, The Mandalorian and Grogu had amassed $246.5 million at the worldwide box office. By the time its run in theaters has ended, its box office take will probably be similar to Solo’s, if not less.

The difference is that The Mandalorian and Grogu cost only $165 million to produce, which is a lot of money but low by Star Wars standards. By the time Disney gets done selling Grogu merch and using the movie to snag some new Disney+ subscribers, it will have made a profit.

The Mandalorian and Grogu in a Star Wars movie Disney can live with for right now

But not forever

With the Star Wars franchise no longer the huge draw it once was, Disney was right to think leaner and meaner for The Mandalorian and Grogu. The movie seems destined to be a speed bump in the franchise’s long history, rather than a disaster.

But after it’s done, Disney needs to think about how to once again turn a Star Wars movie into an event. Its next big play is Star Wars: Starfighter, a standalone film that will be set years after The Rise of Skywalker, starring Ryan Gosling. Starfighter is due out in 2027. Will it have the vision necessary to push the franchise into a new, interesting place, or will it be another letdown?

A new hope

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is on streaming now — but you’d be smarter to wait

Given what a step down it is, you’re better off waiting until The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is available to stream on Peacock or Netflix.

Another possibility is that Disney could rethink its whole approach to franchises in general. For years, they’ve been the masters of the big IP franchise, milking billions of dollars out of the Star Wars and Marvel Cinematic Universes. But this past weekend, low-budget, independent horror movies like Obsession and Backrooms — both of them made by up-and-coming directors in their 20s — have blown The Mandalorian and Grogu out of the water. That might be a fluke, or it might be a sign that the era of big IP is waning and that audiences want more original fare.

At the very least, that could inspire Disney to invest in a few original projects alongside its big IP movies, which would be a good first step.