Millions of homes across London, Essex and Kent are at risk of sinking due to climate change, a new report has warned.
Hotter and drier weather in the UK means the ground underneath homes could shrink in a process known as subsidence, dragging foundations down, according to the British Geological Survey (BGS).
Subsidence can significantly impact a property’s value, leaving homeowners with hefty costs to stabilise their home before many lenders will agree to offer a mortgage. It can also force councils and utilities to take on engineering works to replace pipes and unstable transport infrastructure.
The most vulnerable areas include London, Essex and Kent, according to the BGS report.
Areas of London including Camden, Islington and Barnet are most susceptible to subsidence, scientists say, as well as Kent in the south-east of England.
It comes as the UK experienced the warmest spring on record and the driest in more than 50 years in 2025. Researchers warned that, as projections indicate that hotter, drier conditions are likely to become increasingly frequent over the coming century, the number of properties susceptible to subsidence-related shrink–swell is on the rise.
Signs include diagonal cracks in walls that are wider at the top, doors and windows that suddenly stick and wallpaper creasing at the joins where walls meet the ceiling.
During the first half of last year, insurers said they supported nearly 9,000 households in recovering from subsidence damage, with the average payout per claim standing at £17,264.
Data collected by the BGS forecasts that, by 2070, around 500,000 properties could be affected under the low emissions scenario aligned to the Paris Climate Agreement. This increases to 1.8 million properties in the medium emissions forecast, which current projections are closest to.
Under the medium emissions scenario, the number of properties likely to be affected by shrink–swell in London will exceed 26 per cent by 2070 and could be as high as 54 per cent under the high emissions emission scenario, with over 2.5 million properties in the capital highly likely or extremely likely to be affected.
In the case of a high emissions scenario, over 4.2 million properties could be affected, it said.
Anna Harrison, applied Quaternary scientist, BGS, said the report identifies the areas most at risk of subsidence, and warned “hotter, drier summers are expected to continue”.
“By combining geotechnical information about volume change potential with data about projected rainfall and temperature scenarios for the coming century, we have been able to identify the areas of Great Britain most likely to become susceptible to shrink–swell subsidence in the future,” Ms Harrison said.
“Dry weather and high temperatures are a major factor in the emergence of shrink–swell subsidence. Looking ahead, these increases in hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters are projected to continue.”
