The ‘King of the North’ seeks a path to becoming Britain’s next leader in a special election

About 75,000 voters in a pocket of northwest England are about to make a momentous decision. They will cast ballots in a contest that may well pick the U.K.’s next prime minister, or plunge Britain’s febrile politics into even more turmoil. Possibly both.

Some of them aren’t too enthusiastic.

“I think they’re all a waste of time,” said Shirley Prior on the choice of candidates in Makerfield, where a special election on June 18 has drawn interest from journalists around the world. That level of attention is all-but unheard of for a midterm by-election to fill one of the 650 seats in the House of Commons.

If Andy Burnham from the center-left Labour Party wins, there’s a strong chance he will replace embattled Prime Minister Keir Starmer as leader of both party and country. He’s up against Reform UK, a hard-right party hoping to prove that this longtime Labour stronghold is fertile ground for its anti-immigration message, with potentially seismic consequences for British democracy.

This district has elected Labour lawmakers for 120 years, but Burnham is not a shoo-in. Reform, led by the veteran anti-immigration politician Nigel Farage, won 24 of the 25 council seats up for grabs in local elections in this area last month.

“I always voted Labour because my dad, my grandad, everybody voted Labour then,” Prior said. “I’ve never done that for a lot, a lot of years.”

Immigration is a top issue

The election is taking place amid heightened tensions over immigration. A stabbing in Belfast this week, for which a Sudanese man has been charged with attempted murder, triggered violent protests in Northern Ireland in which cars and houses torched.

In the constituency’s main town of Ashton-in-Makerfield, 200 miles (320 kilometers) northwest of London, some voters echo Reform claims that recent arrivals are straining housing and public services.

“Immigration’s too high, all the services are being put under pressure and Labour just keep inviting more and more people into the country and it’s the taxpayer who has to pay for them,” said retiree Phil Arrowsmith.

Annual net migration to the U.K. reached more than 900,000 in 2023, under the previous Conservative government, before falling to 171,000 last year.

That decline has done little to boost a Labour government that has floundered since winning election in July 2024.

Starmer has struggled to deliver promised economic growth, repair tattered public services and ease the cost of living, and been hamstrung by repeated missteps, including his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson, a scandal-tarnished friend of Jeffrey Epstein, as Britain’s ambassador to Washington.

A dismal performance in local elections last month sparked a clamor from Labour lawmakers for Starmer’s resignation. He has refused, but Cabinet minister Wes Streeting quit so he can run in a leadership contest that could come soon.

Burnham, the popular mayor of Greater Manchester, also harbors leadership ambitions, but needs a seat in Parliament if he wants to challenge Starmer. An opening emerged when Josh Simons, the Labour lawmaker for Makerfield, stepped down to trigger a special election.

Burnham said he understands that voters are “fed up” and calls the large Reform UK vote “a cry for real change” that Labour must heed.

The ‘King of the North’ eyes power in London

The Makerfield constituency is a capsule of British history, a collection of former coal-mining communities turned commuter suburbs. The slag heaps and slum housing in the area described by George Orwell in his 1937 book “The Road to Wigan Pier” have been replaced by suburbs of tidy modern houses amid Victorian workers’ cottages, interspersed with farmers’ fields.

Though far from the city center, it is part of Greater Manchester, and Burnham gets honks and thumbs’ ups from passing drivers as he walks down the street in his smart-casual uniform of dark jeans with a navy blue shirt and jacket.

The 56-year-old has been mayor of the region of 3 million people since 2017, a period that has seen central Manchester boom, with skyscrapers blooming on postindustrial sites. Many residents praise him for championing the city, and for taking a piecemeal public transport system under municipal control as the Bee Network.

For a decade and a half before that he was a lawmaker in Parliament, and a minister in Labour governments. He doesn’t emphasize that part of his CV, preferring the outsider status that has seen him nicknamed the King of the North.

“What we’ve built in Greater Manchester needs to go national,” Burnham told reporters during a campaign event this week. “I know what it is to turn places around.”

Many predict a close contest

The campaign is an odd mix of the local and the international. Some voters cite immigration as a top concern. Others mention struggling main street shops, potholes and petty crime.

Burnham’s main rival is Reform UK candidate Rob Kenyon, a 41-year-old plumber and local councilor who came second to Labour here in the 2024 national election. He says he’s an unpolished regular bloke, though opponents have criticized him over crude, sexist and anti-vaccine comments on social media.

Reform voters are also being targeted by Restore, an even more hardline anti-immigration party.

Michael Poultney, a retired teacher and Labour supporter, thinks the unpopularity of Starmer’s government means Burnham faces a stiff challenge.

“Without his personal vote, I think we would struggle,” he said. “Keir Starmer has done reasonably well on the international stage, but the government are yet to be in control of the economy.”

Burnham insists he is running for the people of Makerfield, not his own ambition, and is not taking victory for granted.

“I am making no assumptions beyond the 18th of June,” Burnham said.

But he stressed that “this is a change byelection.”

“I will take the fight for the changes I want to see in politics as far as I can take it,” he said.