As day two of the G7 Summit draws to a close, one thing is clear: Sir Keir Starmer’s presence this week is a far cry from last year.
When the PM arrived in Ottawa for the G7 in 2025, he was widely seen as the man who could salvage Nato’s relationship with the volatile Donald Trump, and was leading the way with Macron when it came to Ukraine.
While the prime minister’s track record domestically was still bumpy, his international presence was strong enough to earn him significant points in his favour.
But this year, the prime minister seems to be much less of a leading figure. With growing questions over his political future, the PM has spent this G7 Summit so far keeping his distance from the media who have travelled out to France with him.
Not only was the typical briefing that the prime minister gives to the journalists travelling out with him postponed (from its typical timing on the plane, to day two of the trip), it was also cut short. The prime minister raised eyebrows among the travelling media pack when he rushed off after just five questions as a result of a schedule clash.
Downing Street has insisted that the briefing will be rescheduled, and that it was simply a result of timings slipping. But the disorder did not project a government in control of the agenda.
It is tough timing for Starmer, who – just days before the summit – saw his Ministry of Defence fall into chaos with the excoriating resignation of defence secretary John Healey and veterans minister Al Carns.
And to make matters worse, the summit takes place just days before the Makerfield by-election – which is expected to see the return of Andy Burnham to Westminster with a push to replace Sir Keir as PM and Labour leader. The other leaders at the summit will be acutely aware that this year’s G7 may well be his last.
Meanwhile, Britain’s failure to put forward a credible plan for defence (or at least a plan that has been accepted by Starmer’s own government) has marked the PM as a liability when it comes to Trump.
While Starmer insisted that he has had a number of good conversations with the US president, at pains to make clear that the pair “get on really well”, the lack of a bilateral meeting on the agenda for the summit suggests that Sir Keir is simply not a priority.
The PM may well be right that things are thawing between himself and the US president after an increasingly turbulent few months. But it could also be that Trump’s focus is elsewhere.
The US president is coming close to negotiating a peace deal with Iran – a key focus of this week’s summit, and an issue on which the PM is firmly on the sidelines.
Part of this is by design. The prime minister has, sensibly, avoided getting drawn into the deeply unpopular Iran war – to Trump’s ire. But its clear the UK is still trying to lead the way in some respects, with its plan to launch a de-mining mission with France in the Strait of Hormuz.
But what has been evident at this summit as Iran dominates the agenda is that the UK has been locked out of talks on a peace deal – perhaps as a result of Britain’s snub on supporting the US.
Asked whether Sir Keir has been shown details of the peace deal, the PM’s spokesperson told reporters at a briefing on Tuesday: “The Americans have talked a lot about when they expect the details of that agreement to be published but what we are absolutely clear on is that its an important step forward in ensuring regional stability and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.”
Notably, there is no suggestion that the UK would have any intel on what the deal involves beyond what is put out into the public domain by the US administration.
When it comes to Ukraine, however, the prime minister is attempting to show that he is still leading the way. On Tuesday morning, he unveiled a package of fresh sanctions on Russian shadow fleet vessels as well as bolstering Ukraine’s nuclear power infrastructure with a £210m export finance package.
It’s not an insignificant package, and it was one that was warmly welcomed by Volodymyr Zelensky. But it has been overshadowed by Starmer’s refusal to budge on defence spending and an overarching image that he is not taking the issue seriously enough.
The PM’s presence at the summit so far can be summed up by an image which did the rounds on social media on Tuesday. The G7 leaders were pictured at a roundtable meeting – but Starmer was nowhere to be seen.
In actual fact, his absence was caused by him taking questions from the media (and trying to fend off the ire of 15 journalists when he had to leave half way through). But for a G7 summit that could well be his last, the image felt remarkably fitting.
