It was, the consensus opinion states, probably the most politically consequential byelection in recent UK history. But what can we learn from the raw numbers announced overnight in Makerfield? Here are some of them.
1. 54.82%
A proportion rather than a raw number, but the percentage of Makerfield voters who went for Andy Burnham was striking.
Before the result, while a Burnham win was expected, many in Labour were anxious that the Greater Manchester mayor should get more votes than not just Reform UK but also Rupert Lowe’s far-right Restore Britain. As it turned out, he received more than the other 13 candidates combined.
With turnout variable, percentages can be a more useful relative measure than absolute votes, and Burnham’s number was greater than the 45.2% Josh Simons got for Labour in the 2024 general election, or that Labour won in 2019.
However useful a percentage might be, nothing beats a straightforward majority figure in an election – and Burnham’s was healthier than perhaps any of his supporters would have expected.
It was again more than Labour achieved in 2024 – also seen in advance as another metric of success – or 2019, if dwarfed by some of the majorities won by the party when Makerfield was still a Labour heartland, not least the 26,000-plus won by the Tony Blair-era minister Ian McCartney in 1997.
3. 2.7 percentage points
To return to proportions again, this was the difference between the 31.8% that Reform’s Robert Kenyon took in the 2024 general election and the 34.5% that the same candidate got this time.
Yes, this was an improvement. But given that Reform have led for 300-plus national opinion polls, and that Makerfield’s disproportionately older, whiter and less well educated population crosses over heavily with their support base, it was still – as Nigel Farage acknowledged – a disappointment.
Has Reform peaked? Did Kenyon’s record of sexist or otherwise offensive social media posts put off female voters? Or was it just a one-off caused by Burnham’s star power? It’s not yet clear, but Farage’s party will be having an inquest.
4. 163
That was the total number of votes won by the Liberal Democrat candidate, Jake Austin, despite his appearance on a BBC One Question Time special. It was 0.36% of the total and precisely 68 votes above the novelty stalwart Count Binface. The Greens got 308 votes; the Conservatives 997.
Yes, none of the parties expected to win, and none were trying especially hard. But the sheer levels of support for three of the supposed major parties meant that even if you combined all their votes, they would have got 3.23%, well below the 5% margin needed to get back their £500 deposit.
This shows just how keen UK voters are becoming on tactical voting as a way to game a first-past-the-post system in an era of multi-party politics. This contest was easy for tactical voters to judge – it was always going to be Labour v Reform – but the keenness of Green and Lib Dem voters, and even some Tories, to do whatever was needed to block Nigel Farage could be a significant factor in the next general election.
