UKHSA says ‘expect rise in deaths’ as heat breaks records this week

The Met Office says roads could melt. France has put its military on alert

The UK is set to bake in record-breaking temperatures which could soar to more than 38C as extreme heat warnings and health alerts have been issued. According to the Met Office, the sweltering heat could last until at least Thursday, sparking weather warnings and concerns for vulnerable people.

Forecasters have said there is “growing confidence” this week could break the record for the hottest June temperature of 35.6C, which was set in 1976 in Southampton. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) warned people to expect significant impacts across health and social care services along with a rise in deaths, particularly among those aged 65 and over or with health conditions.

The extreme heat could also bring disruptions to rail, road and air travel, with the possibility of some tarmac melting, according to the Met Office. Over the coming days, humid conditions are forecast alongside potentially tropical nights, when the overnight temperature does not fall below 20C, making it feel “muggier” than last month’s heatwave, the weather service said.

For Monday, central southern England could see highs of up to 34C with the temperature set to climb to 37C on Tuesday in southern England and south-east Wales, Met Office meteorologist Simon Partridge said. “Then Wednesday and Thursday, both 38C but there’s potential for it to go higher and then by Friday, coming down a little bit, so we’ll see 33C and then it should ease off into the weekend but still stay quite warm, even into next week, although it won’t be anywhere near as warm as this week,” he added.

An extreme amber heat warning has been issued by the Met Office from Monday until Thursday, flagging potential health impacts for people vulnerable to extreme heat and heat-related issues for the wider population, as well as a possible increase in water safety incidents. Monday and Tuesday’s warning covers most of southern England, central and eastern Wales, and much of the Midlands, while Wednesday and Thursday’s alert also includes parts of Greater Manchester, Yorkshire and Cheshire.

People in the alert area are advised to drink plenty of fluids and keep out of the sun, and avoid exercising between 11am and 3pm, the weather service said. Mr Partridge said: “It’s a very unusual, very rare spell of very hot weather, so it’s one of those ones where people should take care, try to keep their houses as cool as possible, check in on those that are vulnerable, so the very young and very old, in particular, are more vulnerable to extreme heat.

“But everybody will feel this because it will be very hot and the overnight temperatures, in particular, will mean that people won’t be getting as much sleep, probably, as they would usually do, so it will affect everyone. There’s also potential for impacts to transport as well.

“We know that when things get very warm, there can sometimes be issues with railway lines, and even possibility that some roads might not be doing too well. If it gets too warm, you may even see a little bit of tarmac melting at times.”

The hottest temperatures are expected in areas between Bristol and London and south of the M4, with most of England and Wales set to hit more than 30C this week, he said. Separate amber heat health alerts have been issued by the UKHSA which now cover most of England from Monday morning until Friday night.

A UKHSA yellow heat alert is also in place for the North East of England during the same period. The heat comes after at least 15 people died after getting into trouble in open water during a hot spell in May.

Mr Partridge said: “We’re also asking as well for everybody to just be very wary around bodies of water, because in the last heatwave, unfortunately, quite a few people lost their lives by going into cold water and getting cold water shock. That’s still very much an issue, so just be careful how you cool yourself down.

“If there’s the option between a hose pipe and jumping in the lake, probably go for the hose pipe and just keep yourself safer.”

Meanwhile, Europe is also sweltering under the heatwave, with temperatures forecast to hit 37C in Rome and 39C in Madrid on Monday. In France, highs of more than 40C are expected on Monday as emergency services and military forces have been put on wildfire alert.

Public alcohol consumption restrictions have been put in place by French authorities and some outdoor sporting events cancelled. Last summer was the hottest on record for the UK, with a mean temperature of 16.1C between the start of June and the end of August, according to the Met Office.

The previous record was held by summer 2018, followed by 2006, 2003, 2022 and 1976. Asked how climate change is impacting the current conditions, Mr Partridge said very hot spells are becoming more frequent.

“This is the second heatwave of this year already so it just shows that the warming climate means that these more extreme spells are becoming more frequent, and that’s unfortunately just the way things are going at the moment and it doesn’t seem to be slowing down,” he added.