Andy Burnham has delivered his first speech in what can now be described as his “prime minister in waiting phase”.
The address, delivered at the People’s Museum in Manchester to a small audience of supporters, gave us a taste of the sort of leader he wants to be, with devolution, political unity and social housing all front and centre of his 10-year plan for Britain.
The message was one of positivity and hope – and was, undoubtedly, in huge contrast to similar speeches by Sir Keir Starmer. Many believe Mr Burnham’s natural body language and bold vision could be a panacea for a party which looked as though it was dying on its feet in two years of government.
But the speech prompted a huge number of questions – not least because he refused to talk to the media afterwards.
Mr Burnham’s decision to duck scrutiny will be seen as a worrying sign for what might be to come – especially for a man who still has so many questions to answer about his promised “new era” for the country.
Here are a few of them:
You can make people feel good, but can you do good?
In some ways, this is the most important question of all. Mr Burnham looks relaxed and relatable in his centrist dad black T-shirt look so mocked by Tory leader Kemi Badenoch. And there is no doubt that he makes Labour MPs feel good – at last.
But that is very different to being able to deliver policies. Sir Keir failed at both. Mr Burnham, for his part, has already U-turned on so many things – including compensating Waspi women, immigration and Brexit – that it is hard to know what he stands for.
Where will the money come from?
Massive amounts of devolution and housebuilding do not come cheap. Ask George Osborne and Boris Johnson, who looked at doing the same but ran out of cash.
Investing in high streets also costs money, while boosting welfare and defence spending hits any budget hard.
In his speech, Mr Burnham recommitted to Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules and borrowing limits. That was an important signal to the markets on economic stability.
We actually do not know yet who will be his chancellor. Picking Ed Miliband from the left sends a very different message from having Wes Streeting in the Treasury from the Blairite right.
But whoever he has in Number 11, Mr Burnham will have to raise the cash somehow – and, at the moment, we don’t know how.
Will you raise tax?
The obvious route to raising cash is to hike taxes. But, in doing so, Mr Burnham threatens witnessing a new flight of wealth and more economic stagnation.
His key lieutenant, former cabinet minister Lou Haigh, has talked about raising capital gains tax but, as Mr Badenoch pointed out, that is likely to kill investment and start ups in the UK.
Then there is the 2024 election manifesto and the promise not to raise VAT, income tax or personal contributions for National Insurance. With Sir Keir and probably Ms Reeves out of the way, will he ignore that election pledge?
Will you call an early election?
The issue that is already being debated most is the need for an early election. Some believe that Mr Burnham needs a fresh mandate if he is to enact a bold vision – especially if he ignores the 2024 manifesto on tax.
There are also political arguments in favour of calling an early election – such as catching the Tories and Reform unprepared.
But, of course, it would be a huge risk and many Labour MPs would lose their seats.
Why can you succeed in house building where everyone else has failed?
Labour is already in danger of missing its general election targets on house building. The Tories also missed their own self-imposed targets.
The problem is that planning laws are not the only obstacle. There are at least seven rounds of regulatory tests developers need to pass to build major developments.
Is Mr Burnham willing to rip much of this up? Is he also willing to infuriate his own MPs when their constituents complain about their areas being concreted over?
The difficulty is that, even with immigration control, the demand for housing is still massively outstripping supply.
What actual powers will a Number 10 of the North have?
While many applaud the idea, the so-called Number 10 of the North needs to be something more distinct than simply an office plate put onto a door.
Whitehall has a habit of fighting hard before decisions and finance are devolved out to less fashionable parts of the country.
Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak did a Treasury of the North in Teesside. But has it made huge difference – or been simply symbolic? That question is not really resolved.
Tagging it “Manchesterism” is all a bit vague and will need to be fleshed out quickly.
For Westminster gossip, intrigue and behind-the-scenes insight, sign up for John Rentoul’s Commons Confidential newsletter by becoming an Independent Premium subscriber here.
What is your position on Brexit?
The biggest U-turn during the Makerfield by-election campaign was in regards to Brexit. Mr Burnham went from wanting to rejoin the EU to not being so sure when he ran for parliament in a pro-Leave seat.
This will be one of the biggest issues he has to deal with – but could, ultimately, help resolve many of the economic problems. Former PM John Major says the UK needs to rejoin the EU’s single market within five years as a matter of priority and cites a loss of £100bn a year in trade and £40bn in tax revenue.
All these questions remain unanswered. But, in less than three weeks, Mr Burnham is likely to be inside No 10 – and will have no choice but to provide answers to the entire country.
