Andy Burnham’s arrival as Labour leader could deal a significant blow to the Green Party’s recent surge in support, polling experts have predicted, with the new prime minister tipped to win back left-wing voters who deserted the party under Sir Keir Starmer.
However, Zack Polanski’s party “will not fade as a threat to Labour” until Mr Burnham has shown his government can deliver and improve people’s lives, they warn.
His supporters hope Mr Burnham, who is ideologically more left-wing than Sir Keir, can help the party stem the tide of enthusiasm for the Greens, who have soared in the polls in recent months and caused a surprise upset when they beat Labour and Reform UK in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
Even before he took over, Mr Burnham has shifted Labour’s stance on a number of issues likely to appeal to new Green voters, including apologising for his party’s actions over Gaza.
And a YouGov poll a week after Keir Starmer announced he would resign, clearing the way for Mr Burnham to take over, showed Labour up two points and the Greens down by the same amount.
Julian Gallie, head of research at Merlin Strategy polling firm, said that Mr Burnham poses “a big threat to the recent success the Greens have had”.
“Burnham gives the government an opportunity to reset the agenda and make a case to those voters who had simply stopped listening to Keir Starmer,” he said.
“We have already seen him make moves to directly engage with Labour voters who have left to the Greens.
“These interventions do remove some of the main barriers for Green voters thinking about returning to Labour. However, if there is no improvement on the cost of living, then the Greens will not fade as a threat to Labour.”
Polling expert and peer Lord Hayward said that a Burnham-led Labour Party would “remove some disenchanted Labour voters from the potential Green pool”.
However, he warned that to woo more voters flirting with the Greens, without losing out to Reform on the other side of the political spectrum, Mr Burnham would have to “prove his competence (in government). That is what much of the electorate is seeking alongside or even ahead of policies.”
Professor John Curtice was more cautious, however, saying it was too early to tell the effect of a Burnham premiership.
He said that Labour had seen a 2 to 3 percentage point “boost in the immediate wake of Starmer’s resignation but that now seems to have disappeared. We now await to see whether Burnham’s arrival will see it restored or go further.
“If it does (it is) more likely to hit the Greens than Reform, although support for Reform is down anyway in wake of Farage’s decision to call the by-election.”
There are “lots of different moving parts at the moment”, he added.
