Andy Burnham has hit the ground running with a flurry of announcements, quirky social media posts and plenty of good vibes.
According to the latest polls, it appears to be paying dividends with what polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice has identified as a six point bounce for Labour replacing Sir Keir Starmer with Mr Burnham.
The pub visits, along with announcements a £2 bus fare cap and VAT being taken off energy bills, are all feeding into a feel good factor with this new premiership – and, more particularly, with Labour MPs who are going on their summer holidays with new confidence.
Videos of Mr Burnham blind testing pub snacks in the pub have definitely helped with his “man of the people” image.
But the real question that polling experts are asking is whether this can last.
One cautionary tale from Prof Curtice is that this sort of bounce is normal when an unpopular leader is replaced by a new one.
He noted that John Major got a seven point bounce when he replaced Margaret Thatcher back in 1990; Gordon Brown also got seven points when he replaced Tony Blair; Theresa May got four points when she replaced David Cameron; Boris Johnson six points for replacing May, and Rishi Sunak four points for replacing Liz Truss.
“It does not necessarily translate into victory at the next election,” Prof Curtice warned, pointing out that the bounce evaporated with Mr Sunak although it worked out previously with Mr Johnson.
“Only Liz Truss did not get a bounce in the polls when she replaced Johnson,” he pointed out. And of course she only lasted 49 days.
The actual split for the six point Labour bounce is four points for Mr Burnham becoming PM and two for Sir Keir saying he will go.
They have been further aided by Nigel Farage struggling with questions about donations from a crypto billionaire and a convicted money launderer.
But even after this, the polls are neck and neck – which might mitigate against the temptation for an early election.
Nevertheless, Mr Burnham’s early decisions have certainly appeared to have an impact because, as another polling expert Lord Hayward noted, the whole discourse has changed.
We are no longer talking about whether Reform will be the next governing party but whether they can hold off a mini Tory revival as the main party of the centre right.
Meanwhile, Mr Burnham appears to have made an excellent decision as chancellor in John Healey with a man who commands respect across Labour’s different factions, but also in the markets.
The bus fare cap, pub business rates and energy bill announcement may seem small but they are good politics.
The new PM has shown he gets people’s struggles and is on their side.
The media may be annoyed at him for dodging press conferences and the habit of unexpectedly dropping announcements at 6am – but there is no doubt that, currently, the new prime minister has taken a firm grip of the political narrative.
He may also be a lucky general with the slide of both Mr Farage and Green populist leader Zack Polanski coinciding with him taking office.
That said, Mr Burnham is still some distance away from having Labour ready to win a general election. All we can say now is that the contest is open again and Labour could yet find a way to win the next general election – when, weeks ago, it seemed all was lost.
