The exact strategy Tories have been told they must use to finally beat Sadiq Khan in 2028

New polling suggests while Labour would retain City Hall as it stands, there is a pathway for a Conservative victory

The Conservative Party must put up a “fresh” candidate with strong credentials on crime and policing to stand a chance in the 2028 London Mayoral election, new polling suggests.

The Tories have fallen short to Sir Sadiq Khan in each of the last three elections since Boris Johnson stood down as Mayor of London. None of Zac Goldsmith, Shaun Bailey or Susan Hall were able to overhaul the current incumbent, who won comfortably on every occasion.

With a multi-party battle looming in 2028, several high-profile candidates, including former Cabinet Minister James Cleverly, are rumoured to be putting their names forward for selection amid suggestions that Sir Sadiq may not stand in their way in a bid for a fourth term.

But new polling from Opinium suggests that the Conservative Party should look to a candidate with a “fresh political profile” rather than someone who already has Westminster experience.

The research, conducted in July with 2,021 adults in London, suggested that while Labour would retain City Hall as it stands, there is still a pathway for a Tory victory.

Fresh face needed

In the polling, 27 per cent of Londoners said a candidate who had previously served in the last Conservative government would make them less likely to vote for the party, compared to 23 per cent who viewed it positively. Meanwhile, having no ministerial background would see 28 per cent of voters more likely to opt for the party, compared to 20 per cent who would be more reluctant.

The pollster warned, however, that “association with the previous administration is helpful, but is unlikely to be enough on its own to transform a candidate’s electoral prospects.”

It found that crime and policing was one of the most important issues to Londoners when it came to choosing their Mayor, while also being the main issue that voters are most likely to believe that the Greater London Authority (GLA) can influence.

Instead, the research suggested that the past experience of a candidate tackling crime and policing matters much more. Over half of voters said this would make them more likely to vote for a candidate.

“Taken together, these findings suggest that the strongest electoral proposition is not simply someone who wasn’t part of the last Conservative government, but someone who offers a genuinely different profile,” the analysis said.

“A candidate with credible experience on crime and policing, a successful career outside Westminster and the ability to present themselves as a fresh face appears substantially more compelling than one whose principal selling point is simply not having served in the previous administration.”

Londoners also believe that the top three policing and crime priorities for the next Mayor should be more police officers on the streets, tougher sentences for offenders and tackling the root causes of crime.

On housing, the top three were bringing empty homes back into use, building more homes as a whole and making renting more affordable.

On transport, voters want the next Mayor to keep fares as low as possible on public transport, make the network more reliable and fix potholes on the capital’s roads.

Labour’s shaky support

With the 2028 London Mayoral election returning to a supplementary vote system – where voters express a first and second choice and two rounds of voting exist – the electoral arithmetic will be different to what has been seen in recent elections.

Party officials will want to make sure that, first and foremost, their candidate makes the final round by being in the top two candidates for ‘first preferences’. With a multi-party race involving the Green Party and Reform UK, this will not be the Labour-Conservative formality seen in every election since 2008.

Initial polling suggests that Labour would win 32 per cent of first choice votes, followed by the Greens on 18 per cent, while the Tories and Reform UK are tied on 17 per cent.

However, a fifth of Labour voters say they would consider voting for a Conservative candidate, suggesting that the polls could swing depending on the Tory choice.

A party source said: “Without mentioning names, this poll tested different candidate profiles and found that Londoners are more drawn to a Conservative candidate combining policing experience, business credentials and a fresh profile than one defined by previous Westminster experience.

“It is the latest evidence in support of Kemi Badenoch’s argument that the Conservative Party must renew itself by selecting candidates capable of rebuilding trust.”

As well as Mr Cleverly, former Olympic athlete Lord Sebastian Coe is thought to be in the running for the Tory candidate nod.

A Conservative Party spokesman said they will be selecting a candidate in due course.

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