Labour has taken the lead over Reform in a fresh national poll just days before Nigel Farage faces the judgement of voters in a crucial by-election in Clacton.
The latest survey puts Andy Burnham’s party on 28 per cent, three points ahead of Reform on 25 per cent, Labour’s best position in an Ipsos poll for more than a year.
It is the fourth national poll Labour has topped since Mr Burnham entered Downing Street, ending the run that saw Mr Farage’s party lead in the polls for more than a year.
The findings will come as a boost to Labour, who Ipsos said were “benefiting from changing their leader”, and a blow to Reform as they spend their final few days campaigning in Clacton.
The Reform leader dramatically quit as an MP earlier this summer – before Labour’s ‘Burnham bounce’ in the polls – and could find himself left without a seat in Parliament unless he wins on Thursday.
While he is widely expected to win the by-election, with his main competition coming from comedian candidate Count Binface after other major parties refused to field candidates, Clacton voters told The Independent last week they feel like the town’s residents have not been respected.
Meanwhile, the Ipsos poll also found Mr Burnham has a significant lead over his political rivals including Mr Farage, when asked who would make the best PM.
Some 36 per cent chose the Labour leader, more than double the 15 per cent who picked Mr Farage or the 13 per cent who selected Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.
Mr Farage faces a crunch test on Thursday when he attempts to win back his Clacton seat.
He resigned as an MP after he claimed that he was the subject of a “stitch up” over the parliamentary standards inquiries into a £5m donation from crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne and gifts from his close confidante and convicted fraudster George Cottrell, after claims they had not been declared as required.
Mr Farage has denied wrongdoing and claimed he has been targeted.
Gideon Skinner, senior director of politics at Ipsos, said the new PM was “clearly much more personally liked than his predecessor was at the end of his term” and more than the opposition leaders.
But he warned his position was currently “part benefit of the doubt and part jury is still out.
“Although Labour has received a boost in voting intentions (partly thanks to more of their 2024 base returning to the fold), many of the underlying issues remain,” he said. “The Labour party itself is still less liked than it has been for most of the last 20 years, and 7 in 10 are still dissatisfied how the country is being run overall – the ongoing pessimism of recent times has dampened public enthusiasm that a new PM will be able to quickly turn around the direction of the country.
“For the moment we are seeing evidence of Andy Burnham’s personal popularity, but for this to continue in the longer term the public will be looking for tangible evidence of improvements in their day-to-day lives.”
The Ipsos poll of 1,033 adults between 30 July and 4 August found Labour 28% (+4 from June), Reform 25% (-1), Conservatives 18% (no change), Greens 12% (-1) and Lib Dems 9% (-2).
