“Lots of people like reshuffles, but they like them because it’s news for a week… then they get bored afterwards” were Kemi Badenoch’s words on whether we could expect a reshuffle in light of Burnham’s accession to Number 10.
She was right. Lots of people do like reshuffles, but a group who most definitely do not are our members. Our latest survey shows that respondents are largely in favour of Badenoch’s top team – with all the Shadow Cabinet members sitting within positive territory.
Badenoch, rather unsurprisingly, tops the poll with an approval rating of +86.9, her highest on record and a jump of +2 since May. She’s followed by the usual ensemble of Claire Coutinho and Nick Timothy, who sit on +71.3 and +64.2 respectively. The two have switched places since our last poll, perhaps a nod to the greater focus being paid to the North Sea as of late.
Heading down the list we see Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride come in at fourth place, with a rating of +63.4 followed by Shadow Education Secretary Laura Trott on +55.7 and Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp on +55.4. Braving French gunfire does wonders for one’s popularity.
Then follows an array of MPs who occupy the middle ground of the poll, sitting around the +40 and +50 mark. Griffith and Cleverly fall just north of +50, whilst the likes of Atkins, Burghart and Cartlidge are perched in the +40s, seeing very little change from the previous ranking.
Heading further down the list and into the territory of +30 comes individuals such as Neil O’Brien, Andrew Bowie and Nigel Huddleston – with the latter two seeing a slight bump in their score since May.
Yet further down and approaching the single digits are Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel and Shadow Health Secretary Stuart Andrew, who are on +12 and +13.8 respectively. It’s an improvement for Andrew, who in May ranked last with +9.4 – the only Shadow Cabinet member in the single digits at the time. Patel, meanwhile, has seemingly soured with members – dropping from her previous rating of +15.7.
Burnham’s reshuffle was seen by many as having provided a green light for Badenoch, and for her to move people around without fear of too significant an amount of bad blood. But she opted not to pull the trigger, and the membership appears rather content with her decision.
Her position at the top of the table is unsurprising, and reinforces the narrative that she will lead the Tory charge into the next general election, whenever one comes. Her ‘say it how it is’ attitude is resonating with the membership, and her hardline stance on the ECHR and net-zero has only served to improve her standing with them.
Whether these numbers will hold up going into our next survey remains an open question. Badenoch’s decision to stand by Joshua Bonehill-Paine, alongside her ill-received letter to the residents of Clacton were uncharacteristic, unforced errors, that may well eat into her favourability come next month.
For now, however, she remains ever popular with the membership and retains a net positive favourability rating – the Keminisation of the party appears to be well underway…
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