Floods and drought could hit the UK at the same time this week, with heavy rain forecast to fall on hard, parched soil.
While some parts of the UK will have the “first meaningful rain for a long time” in the coming days, it will not reverse widespread drought conditions that have put pressure on wildlife, farmers, firefighters and water resources.
On Tuesday, South East Water told customers in Kent to use water only for “essential” purposes, after taps ran dry on Monday for around 8,000 customers. Wessex Water imposed the UK’s latest hosepipe ban, covering 1.4m customers in Bath, Somerset, Dorset and Wiltshire.
The summer’s fifth climate crisis-driven heatwave will be followed by wetter and cooler weather that is much closer to the usual conditions for the time of the year, according to the Met Office.
Its deputy chief forecaster, Mike Silverstone, said showers were expected on Tuesday in the north of the country, particularly in the north-west, and that another area of rain would move into the south-west by the evening.
This would then probably spread east across the south, bringing the first spell of widespread rain to areas most in need. “Thursday will be a day of heavy showers across much of the UK. While some of these will be heavy, some areas will miss them altogether,” Silverstone said.
“As some of these showers could be intense, there is a chance of some surface water flooding as the rain falls on very dry and hard ground,” he added.
The forecast rain may bring some welcome relief to parched land and firefighters tackling wildfires, but water shortages will persist.
South East Water told customers in Kent on Tuesday that the levels in its storage tanks remained “critically low”, despite having restored supplies to 7,400 homes in Herne Bay, Rough Common and Blean on Tuesday. About 400 homes still had no water, the company’s spokesperson said.
A spokesperson from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said the situation was “simply not good enough”.
“South East Water needs to go further and faster to reduce leaks and follow their drought plans to ensure supplies are not disrupted in even the driest of weather,” the spokesperson said.
South East Water was the first water company to issue a hosepipe ban this summer, on 3 July for customers in some parts of Kent. On Tuesday, Wessex Water became the latest, with its first ban since the summer of 1976.
The company blamed increased demand during the dry weather, but also longer-term weather forecasts that mean resources must be protected for customers and the environment.
On Friday, Environment Agency data showed five of England’s key reservoirs are currently “exceptionally low”, while the the National Hydrological Monitoring Programme warned low supplies were likely to persist into the autumn.
Thames Water also urged customers to continue to limit water use. The company said in an update on Tuesday that since it imposed its hosepipe ban on 23 July household demand had fallen by 3% across London and more than 6% across the Thames Valley and home counties.
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July rainfall in the Thames catchment area was less than 1mm, which is 2% of the long-term average. Customers used about 100m litres more water a day than normal, putting pressure on rivers, reservoirs and the water network.
London reservoir storage is at 74% as a result, far lower than expected for this time of year.
Thames Water’s director of water, Martin Padley, said: “With reservoir levels below where we would expect them to be for this time of year and demand remaining high, we’re asking customers to keep going and continue using only what they need.
Liz Stephens, a professor in climate risk and resilience at the University of Reading, told PA Media it could take many weeks of sustained rainfall for vegetation to recover and rivers and reservoirs to return to normal.
“Here in the south-east, we’re still a month’s worth of rain below what we would normally expect by this point in the year, despite the heavy rainfall in January and February,” she said.
“As a result, while any rain which falls this week may help reduce the immediate wildfire risk, it will take many weeks of sustained rainfall for vegetation to recover and our rivers and reservoirs to return to normal. This means that we should expect hosepipe bans to be in place for some time.
“Floods can still occur during drought conditions and surface water flooding can even become more likely as baked soils are unable to soak up rainwater as quickly.”
PA Media contributed to this report
