Nigel Farage’s party continues to drop in popularity as Reform begin their annual conference in Birmingham.
Although Reform made gains in the devolved and local elections this May, the party has since become bogged down in controversies over donations to Mr Farage, has faced competition on its right from Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain, and has lost its lead in voting intention polls since Andy Burnham took office.
A YouGov poll on voting intention released on Wednesday put the parties neck-and-neck at 23 points. In comparison, in August a poll put Labour at 24 points to Reform’s 22, marking a two-point lead to Labour.
The proportion of Britons willing to consider voting for Reform has gradually fallen from 27 per cent since September last year and the proportion giving the party as their main voting intention down by five points (to 16 per cent). Overall support for Reform has now returned to roughly the level it was before the 2025 council elections, according to YouGov.
This dip in support mirrors a significant fall in opinion towards Mr Farage, with his latest net favourability rating sitting at -44 markedly – down from its peak of -27 last summer.
Belief he is doing well as Reform leader has fallen a stark 51 net points, from +18 this time last year to -33 today.
In a separate YouGov poll, around six in ten Britons said they believe Reform is an untrustworthy party, serving their own interests, prejudiced and extreme.
The survey ahead of the party’s conference starting today revealed that 56 per cent of people also saw the party as incompetent and caring only about a select few rather than caring about ordinary people.
When Britons were asked to describe Mr Farage in their own words, some 71 per cent used at least one negative term. The most frequent being accusation was that the leader is racist, (15 per cent), or a liar (12 per cent).
Meanwhile, 27 per cent use at least one positive term to describe him, with his perceived patriotism (5 per cent) and honesty (4 per cent) being the top compliments paid to him.
Some 19 per cent of Britons feel that he looks like a prime minister in waiting, down seven points since June.
The figures suggest that Mr Burnham may also be winning back voters who may have previously turned away from it under the leadership of Sir Keir.
Only 49 per cent of former Labour voters said they would support the party when the former prime minister stood down in June – a figure that has risen to 61 per cent in the latest poll.
There has also been a notable boost among 18 to 24-year-olds under Mr Burnham, with support rising from 14 per cent to a 32 per cent over the same time period. In comparison, only 3 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds would vote Reform.
Latest voting intention data also revealed 20 per cent of all adults would vote Conservative, 13 per cent would vote Green and 12 per cent would vote Liberal Democrat if an election was held tomorrow.
Labour’s rise in popularity under Mr Burnham has prompted calls for him to call an early election which, if he won, would secure him a mandate for at least five years to deliver the bold changes he has pledged as prime minister.
But pollster have warned that there would be no benefit in doing so for the Labour leader, as the so-called “Burnham bounce” may already have peaked.
It would also be tricky timing for Mr Farage, who still faces a parliamentary standards investigation upon his likely return to Westminster this week – one which could ultimately unseat him for good.
