The proposed third runway would need to see airlines clean up emissions if it’s to happen and stay within climate change commitments, it’s claimed
The expansion of Heathrow airport cannot go ahead unless the aviation industry is forced to clean up its climate emissions, advisers have warned.
The cost of international flights might have to increase by hundreds of pounds by 2050, to pay for measures that will help the airline sector cut its carbon pollution to zero overall, known as net zero, the Climate Change Committee said.
Last week, Chancellor John Healey said the Government had “given the go-ahead” to the proposal to build a third runway at Heathrow Airport, which will cost an estimated £33 billion, including £1.5 billion to move the M25, and increase the site’s capacity to 756,000 flights and 150 million passengers.
But Prime Minister Andy Burnham has previously expressed concerns over the expansion, and it has long been opposed by climate experts and Mayor of London Lord Sadiq Khan.
In advice requested by the Government on its draft Heathrow expansion national policy statement, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) warned there was “no credible pathway” for the move within the UK’s legal climate targets under current policies for cutting aviation emissions.
And whether or not Heathrow expansion goes ahead, the UK “does not have a credible plan to reduce” aviation emissions, posing a serious challenge to meeting overall climate targets, the independent advisory committee warned.
The UK has a legal target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions overall to net zero by 2050, which means cutting pollution as near to zero as possible and then using solutions such as tree planting or technology to capture carbon from the atmosphere to offset the remainder.
Without the world reducing climate-warming emissions, most of which come from burning fossil fuels for power, homes, transport and industry, to net zero, global temperatures will continue to rise with worsening impacts including extreme heatwaves, floods, drought and rising seas.
For aviation, policies to cut emissions include more efficient aircraft and airspace management, sustainable aviation fuels, paying for projects that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and reducing growth in demand for flights.
The CCC says the airline sector should pay for the cost of these policies, which would likely be passed onto travellers and see flight prices rise significantly over the next few decades, which would help manage growth in demand.
The committee estimates that policies to cut aviation emissions to net zero would add as much as £150 to a return flight to Alicante, Spain, by 2050, and £400 to a return flight to New York – but said action now could ensure the the costs are phased in slowly to avoid sudden jumps in price.
And the advisers said almost half of people do not fly abroad in any given a year, while a third of all flights abroad are taken by only 5% of people who take five or more international flights in a year.
Committee officials pointed to citizens panels it had organised, which found people thought that the aviation sector should be responsible for the cost of dealing with its emissions, not adding it to general taxation and charging those who do not fly.
While policy on how the costs should be passed onto passengers would be a matter for Government, the committee pointed to public support for ensuring that ordinary families should not be priced out of the occasional holiday abroad.
This could mean use of a frequent flyer tax, for those who take multiple flights in a year, while there could also be carve-outs for flights from Britain to Northern Ireland or the Shetland Islands.
Climate Change Committee chairman Nigel Topping said that emissions from flying had doubled in the UK since 1990, even as overall climate pollution had halved, and Heathrow was responsible for around half of the sector’s emissions.
By 2050, aviation emissions will dwarf all other parts of the economy, and Heathrow expansion alone would produce more emissions than any other sector.
Mr Topping said: “Every tonne of greenhouse gas emissions contributes to climate change and its impacts, of which we’ve seen stark evidence with the extreme weather this summer.
“Expansion cannot mean more climate pollution.”
He said: “Ultimately, the polluter pays principle must apply. If aviation is to grow, it must take responsibility for the emissions it creates.
“Expansion can only be compatible with the UK’s climate commitments if the sector is required to manage and pay for the full cost of reaching net zero.”
Before granting the go-ahead for any proposed Heathrow expansion, the UK should legislate policies that will require the aviation industry to cut or offset 100% of its emissions.
The revised “jet zero” strategy, planned for 2027, needs to set out a credible and robust set of policies and implementation plan for getting aviation to net zero, the committee urged.
In response, the airline industry called for the transition to net zero to be affordable, claiming airlines were already investing billions in new aircraft, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and airspace upgrades, and had a plan to deliver it.
Tim Alderslade, chief executive of industry body Airlines UK, said: “The answer is affordable SAF, already cutting emissions since the mandate began, airspace reform by 2035 for more direct routes and scaled-up carbon removals.
“Both SAF and greenhouse gas removals are proven technically viable, as the CCC itself admits.
“We should focus on delivering them, not pricing ordinary people out of the joys of travel,” he urged.
A Department for Transport spokesperson said: “Any expansion proposal would need to align with our net-zero targets.
“We’re investing £219 million in sustainable aviation fuel production and a further £43 million in cleaner technologies to support greener aviation, while expansion could deliver around £40 billion to the economy and support up to 60,000 local jobs.
“We will carefully consider CCC’s advice along with all responses received to the Heathrow expansion consultation.”
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