A sustained polling boost for the new government is fuelling speculation that Andy Burnham is considering an early general election, as a fall in popularity for Reform UK continues.
The governing party has remained consistently above Nigel Farage’s party for approval since Mr Burnham’s coronation in July, when Labour overtook Reform for the first time since March 2025.
The new leadership has also hit the ratings of Zack Polanski’s Green Party, which has seen a drop in support over the past few months.
The government has said that it does not intend to call an early election. However, Labour sources told The Independent last week that the by-election to replace Sir Keir Starmer in Holborn and St Pancras is being seen as a test run for the possibility.
The former prime minister announced that he would be leaving parliament earlier this month after resigning as prime minister and Labour leader to make way for Mr Burnham.
Mr Polanski has confirmed that he will stand as the Green candidate for the seat next month, in what will be a key test for the new government.
Opposition parties also appear to be preparing for the country to go to the polls early, with Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey having revealed a manifesto working group has already been formed.
“We don’t normally do it this early,” he told The Guardian.
Meanwhile, Reform sources have suggested Mr Burnham could be convinced to call an early election depending on the outcome of the London by-election.
They told The i that if Labour’s candidate beats Mr Polanski “convincingly”, he could be dismissed a “dud” and convince Labour that the progressive vote was uniting behind them once again.
A Tory source also told the paper a victory over the Greens in Holborn and St Pancras could “tempt” the prime minister into an early vote.
“[Burnham’s] whole thing is to consolidate the left,” they said. “If he continues to constrict the Green vote then it will tempt him into an early election whilst the right remains split.”
Under Sir Keir’s leadership, polling showed that Labour began to lose support from left-leaning voters over issues such as Gaza and welfare spending.
This coincided with a boost to the Greens, which recorded a high of around 14 per cent approval in April this year, based on an average of top pollsters, compared to a Labour low of 19 per cent in the same month.
Pollsters have broadly forecast that Labour will win the contest, taking a nearly 50 per cent majority in the seat in 2024.
However, the picture has changed since. The Greens took three London councils from Labour at the local elections earlier this year, and took its share of seats in Camden – home to Holborn and St Pancras – from one to 11 at the contest, while Labour held overall control.
Will Labour call an early election?
There are clear upsides for Mr Burnham in calling an early election, particularly if Labour holds the seat of Holborn and St Pancras.
The new prime minister has pledged sweeping changes. However, having secured the role with just 24,000 votes from the people of Makerfield – and after running uncontested to be Labour leader – his opponents have argued that he does not hold a mandate from the nation to pursue his agenda.
A general election victory would inarguably grant this, plus an extra two years to deliver the policies he has begun to set out.
Under present rules, the latest the next general election can take place is in 2029.
Polling would suggest that it would also be an inopportune time for two of Labour’s key political opponents – Reform and the Greens – given dropping support for both parties.
Reform’s approval now sits at its lowest in 20 months, at an average 24 points, and the Green’s at 10 points from 14 in April.
The Conservatives meanwhile have begun to plateau at around 20 points, and the Lib Dems at around 11.
However, polling expert John Curtice has poured doubt on Labour optimism in the face of these trends, telling The Independent last week that there is still a chance for Reform UK to become the biggest party at a nationwide contest.
“The numbers are just not there”, he said.
Labour disastrous local election results – where it lost 38 councils – saw it drop support in places where they were previously the strongest party, Mr Curtice explained. This pattern means Reform could “still do perfectly well in terms of seats.”
Mr Burnham has also been “dying [to become PM] for years”, Mr Curtice added.
“Holding an election now means risking three years to gain two. It’s a bad deal.”
