If Andy Burnham wins Makerfield by-election &#8211; what happens next?

Candidates in the hotly contested Makerfield by-election are making their last pitch to voters today.

Both Mr Burnham and former health secretary Wes Streeting have said they would run to replace the Prime Minister.

As a regional mayor, Mr Burnham had to get approval to run in Makerfield from Labour Party’s National Executive Committee (NEC), which had blocked him from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year.

After obtaining permission from the NEC he was selected as Labour’s candidate.

So what happens if he wins?

Andy Burnham could challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the keys to No 10 if he wins a return to Westminster

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If Mr Burnham wins in Makerfield he would have to resign as the Mayor of Greater Manchester.

A by-election to replace him would be expected to be held by August 6.

Some Labour MPs fear Reform UK could win a mayoral vote in Manchester after Nigel Farage’s party made significant gains at the local elections.

Mr Burnham won the 2024 mayoral election by a huge margin with more than 60 per cent of the vote.

His supporters have said that the importance of retaining the mayoralty strengthens the case for him to become Prime Minister sooner rather than later.

Wes Streeting has said he is prepared to trigger a leadership contest

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Asked about the threat of a leadership challenge, Sir Keir Starmer said: “There is Westminster talk about what might happen in by-elections.

“Meanwhile, I would just gently point out, that we do have a Manchester mayoralty by-election which will follow immediately on if Andy Burnham wins the by-election.

“I hope he wins, but we then tip straight into the Manchester mayoralty by-election… so we’re all going to have to focus on that.”

To replace Sir Keir, Mr Burnham would have to win a Labour leadership contest.

This can only be triggered when 81 Labour MPs (20 per cent of the parliamentary party) back a new candidate.

Mr Burnham would have to ensure he had the support of enough backbenchers and then submit written nominations to the General Secretary of the party to trigger the contest.

Every candidate with enough nominations would be placed on a ballot paper and Labour MPs would rank their top three.

If a candidate receives more than 50 per cent of the vote, they are elected.

If no one passes the threshold, then the candidate who came last is removed and votes are redistributed until a winner is named.

As the incumbent leader, Sir Keir would not need to seek nominations and would be automatically placed on the ballot paper if he did not step down.

Mr Burnham hopes to win in the Makerfield by-election on Thursday

PA Wire

When will a leadership election be called?

Ilford North MP Mr Streeting has said he is prepared to trigger a leadership contest, following Thursday’s by-election.

He told the BBC he would “prefer the PM to take a decision on his own terms rather than leave it for me or Andy or anyone else to trigger a contest.”

But added: “If not we can’t carry on with this uncertainty and paralysis and there will need to be a contest and I would be prepared to do that.”

Sir Keir has warned Mr Burnham against launching an immediate leadership challenge if he becomes an MP, urging him to focus instead on the election for a new Greater Manchester Mayor.

The Prime Minister has refused to set out a timetable for his departure and suggested he would fight any challenge.

He has also hinted that Mr Burnham may be offered a job in his cabinet if he wins in Makerfield.

“I hope he wins the by-election and he’ll play a big part in the Labour government,” Sir Keir said.

There are 14 candidates in the Makerfield by-election: